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« Electoral Prediction | Main | In Over My Head »

October 28, 2004

100K

I'm fortunate I was sitting down when I read this, because I was thunderstruck when I read that about 100,000 Iraqi civilians have died as result of the Iraq war and its aftermath.

A survey of deaths in Iraqi households estimates that as many as 100,000 more people may have died throughout the country in the 18 months after the U.S. invasion than would be expected based on the death rate before the war.

There is no official figure for the number of Iraqis killed since the conflict began, but some non-governmental estimates range from 10,000 to 30,000. As of Wednesday, 1,081 U.S. servicemen had been killed, according to the U.S. Defense Department.

The scientists who wrote the report concede that the data they based their projections on were of "limited precision," because the quality of the information depends on the accuracy of the household interviews used for the study. The interviewers were Iraqi, most of them doctors.

Designed and conducted by researchers at Johns Hopkins University, Columbia University and the Al-Mustansiriya University in Baghdad, the study is being published Thursday on the Web site of The Lancet medical journal.

The survey indicated violence accounted for most of the extra deaths seen since the invasion, and air strikes from coalition forces caused most of the violent deaths, the researchers wrote in the British-based journal.

"Most individuals reportedly killed by coalition forces were women and children," they said.

I don't know about anyone else, but I've been in crowds of 100,000 people or more, and the thought of that many people being dead inside of about 18 months is just...astounding.

If this number is anywhere close to true, does it change the answer to the question of whether the war in Iraq was worth it. Was it worth 100,000 or more lives?

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